TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.…SPECIAL FEATURES…
AS OF 0300 UTC…TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEVELOPED AND IT IS LOCATED NEAR 14N47W. ERIKA IS MOVING W AT AROUND 17 KT AND IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A WNW TRAJECTORY WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
…TROPICAL WAVES…
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 28W FROM 14N-21N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 25W-29W.
…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 15N24W TO 15N34W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE…ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THE BOUNDARY.…DISCUSSION…
GULF OF MEXICO…
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO COVERING THE W GULF W OF 94W WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 24N96W TO 22N96W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE NE…A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N93W. WITH THIS…A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF STATES SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 89W-94W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES S AND STALL ALONG THE GULF STATES COASTLINE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
CARIBBEAN SEA…
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CUBA AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF 17N AND W OF 78W. TO THE E…A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N71W EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE A WEAK 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N64W WITH SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 63W-66W AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SE PUERTO RICO. BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE REMNANTS OF DANNY TO DISSIPATE WHILE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
…HISPANIOLA…
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. IN 24 HOURS…EXPECT FOR THE REMNANTS OF DANNY CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SE PUERTO RICO TO MOVE S OF THE ISLAND WHILE WEAKENING THEN DISSIPATE. WITH THIS…AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.ATLANTIC OCEAN…
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N79W COVERING THE AREA W OF 67W AND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO 29N66W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 65W-75W. TO THE E…ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 45W-50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER.
