A few things happened overnight with Fred. Frist off, Fred is a Tropical Strom again. And it is headed toward the Florida panhandle. Again.
The center of Fred reformed under an explosion of convection well back to the north / north-northeast of where everything was centered yesterday. On top of that, since the center was pulled north, the whole track for Fred has shifted with it.
The forecast track from the NHC is now back closer to Florida and Alabama again.
Even the model guidance is back onboard, and in pretty decent agreement. Most of the forecast tracks take this ashore near Pensacola, Florida.
So, what gives? Why all the short-term confusion during the day yesterday?
Liek always, I won’t claim to be any kind of Tropical Meteorology guru, but after studying satellite imagery, it looks like the upper-level low that was scooting through Florida gave a bit of a ‘Fujiwara’ tug to the convection that was erupting on the northern side of Fred. That explosion of convection pulled the center of Fred toward that convection, which was itself being pulled north (and even a bit northeast).
So As the low-level center was pulled that direction, a new mid-level center also formed in the same area. And BAM! Fred 2.0 was born.
Right now, I think intensity models are probably under-cutting the top-end strength for Fred.
Most guidance shows a mid-range Tropical Storm at landfall. And while landfall is looking like it will occur in about 24-36 hours, I still think Fred will manage to jump to a stronger Tropical Storm than currently shown in the guidance.
Not Rapid Intensification type stuff, I tend to trust that data.
But just stronger than being shown. And that is what the NHC may be thinking, too. While the guidance shows a nearly-zero chance that Fred puts down 50kt wind. The NHC is showing a 10- to 30-percent chance.
In general, it looks like my forecast from four days ago will still hold. It looks like most of the impacts will occur for folks in Florida, Alabama and Georgia.
Potential impacts
Here is some great info pulled straight from the National Hurricane Center…
South Mississippi notes
This looks to have shifted back to the east of south Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana. Some breezy conditions may prevail starting tomorrow morning through Tuesday with occasional passing tropical showers from feeder bands.
But otherwise, at this time, continue to monitor the forecast to make sure greater impacts aren’t anticipated for your specific location.
8/16/21….
(….™bows head”/moment of silence honouring Elvis, ’cause..,). Anyhow, THANKS, Nick. Been keeping an eye on both Fred, and Grace…. East of Petal could use a smol drizzle or two, but; I’m not ready to lose any shingles. Barometer on ye olde WX watch is fairly accurate with your own data. So…I’m gonna draw out a chart for Gracie, and wait…. Gotta love August in MS.