Good morning folks, and happy Saturday!
Typical summertime weather will continue through next week, with hot and muggy conditions almost everyday, with the chance for some showers and thunderstorms as well.
Current Synoptic Picture
As I like to do, let’s first take a look at the current 500mb map so we can get a feel for the upper-level weather patterns. The two main features in this map are the upper-level high in the Four Corners region, and the trough in the Eastern United States. Looking at the wind barbs, we can see that the interaction between the upper-level high and upper-level trough is imparting generally northerly flow over the Southeast. This northerly flow is responsible for some drier mid-levels, which is reflected by the slightly-below average precipitable water values.
At the surface however, with dew points in the 70s, it’s safe to say that the drier air aloft is certainly not being felt at the surface.
Upcoming Week
For today, the heat is expected to continue, with temperatures in the mid-90s and high dew points, the heat index will max out around 100 F in the afternoon.
Some relief from the heat will arrive in the form of scattered afternoon storms, likely along a weak boundary passes through the region from the north, and along the sea breeze boundary toward the Gulf.
For Sunday, the forecast remains largely the same, with high temperatures in the mid-90s and heat indices around 100 F for much of the region, with the chance for more pop-up afternoon storms, particularly closer to the Coast due to the sea breeze boundaries.
Through early next week, however, a developing upper-level trough will swing through the region, enhancing atmospheric lift and leading to an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms. The energy associated will take some time to pass through, so increased precipitation chances are likely through Wednesday.
Much like the case in the previous few weeks, this boundary will stall to our south in the northern Gulf of Mexico, resulting in some unsettled weather through the end of next week, particularly along the coast and into northern Florida.
Apart from the increased chance for rain along the Gulf by the end of next week, the typical threat for pop-up showers and thunderstorms will continue to exist throughout the week. On the same token, temperatures are expected to be around average, if not slightly-above average this week.
By next Friday, however, models are hinting that another boundary will pass through the region, enhancing the chances for rain once again…
Day-to-day Forecast
Today
Partly cloudy skies with a 40-percent chance of an afternoon storm. Expect highs in the low-to-mid-90s.
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy skies with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Expect highs in the low-to-mid-90s.
Monday
Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 50-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Expect highs in the mid-90s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy skies with a 40-percent chance for an afternoon storm. Expect highs in the mid-90s.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy skies with a 20-percent chance for an afternoon storm. Expect highs in the mid-90s.
Thursday
Partly cloudy skies with a 30-percent chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the low-to-mid-90s.
Friday
Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 50-percent chance for a shower or thunderstorm throughout the day. Expect highs in the low-90s.
