Good morning! I’m back from a brief vacation, but just as an advance notice, I’ll be running on a really small hotspot for the next week or two, so my posts aren’t going to be as detailed or lengthy. But with forecasts going out every day, I’m sure there will be enough information to go around.
Looking at what’s going on in the region, we have another hot day on tap. With temperatures in the lower-90s and heat indices around 100-103F, we’re going to feel similar to what we’ve been seeing over the past couple of days.
Any rain is going to be spotty at best, and it should be dry for most, though the models are showing a few isolated storms during the afternoon today.
Generally speaking, it doesn’t look like a bad day at all. Hopefully you can take advantage of the sunshine, and soak up all you can now- since there is a big shift coming up later this week.
Before we talk about the future, let’s take a look at the pattern now.
This map shows the 500 mb height and wind for this morning. The highest pressure is located over the Kansas City area, but a ridge extends down into this portion of the country, causing warmer than average temperatures, as well as lower rain chances.
However, as Easterly waves spin up around the South side of the main upper-level ridge, we are going to see that start to change.
It might be hard to spot on a map that hasn’t been marked up, but there is an upper level low pressure sitting over the Northern Gulf Coast. As the main portion of the ridge slides to the West, it’s leaving a spot behind it open – which that upper-level trough is happy to occupy for a little while.
This system is unlikely to become tropical, but there is always a low chance that something spins up under conditions like this, with a weakening front interacting with an upper level low over extremely warm Gulf waters.
I’m not going to have a tropical section this morning, in large part due to the service issues I mentioned earlier, but I will mention here that the Atlantic is still not doing much. Hurricane season is still forecast to be pretty active, but we’re probably looking at action really ramping up in the 3rd week of August, if not later.
A slow July/early August does not mean we’re out for the count, and there could definitely still be systems that impact us later on into the Fall. As of right now, though, things aren’t looking too bad at all. I would take the quietness and enjoy it, personally.
What we do know, is that this Gulf system is going to bring lots of heavy rain, and slightly cooler than average temperatures. There might be some heat today and tomorrow, but we won’t be seeing any Heat Advisories or bulletins thanks to this system.
Extensive cloud cover will also help keep our temperatures down, even if one area happens to stay dry for a period.
Looking at the 5-day rainfall map, which is valid through Thursday evening, heavy rainfall is generally expected across this region, with heavier totals to the South. The further South you go, the closer you get to the Gulf of Mexico, which is the main moisture source for our heavy rains.
Those rainfall totals are smoothed out, so while not everyone will see the 0.75”-1.25” that’s being advertised, some may exceed that total by a good amount. Usually when we have extremely rich moisture interacting with a boundary, it means that someone might see a lot of rainfall, so I would expect that to happen to some.
There is no official risk for flash flooding, but if you live in an area that has recently seen a lot of rainfall, I would keep an eye out for more adverse conditions this week, as it just takes one training thunderstorm to cause some problems.
Next Saturday and Sunday look like they’re probably going to be a lot nicer, as the upper-level disturbance looks to leave the area by Friday. Temperatures should warm back up closer to average, with temperatures hovering around the low-90s. Skies won’t be as overcast, and rain will be a lot more scattered than earlier in the week, so it’s just a short time where we’re going to have to deal with some rough weather.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny, with a 30-percent chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Highs in the low-90s. The Heat Index may reach 103F
Tomorrow
Clouds increasing during the day, with a 60-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs aorund 90F. The Heat Index may reach 102F.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with an 80-percent chance of widespread thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs in the upper-80s. Heavy rainfall is possible.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with an 80-percent chance of widespread thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs in the upper-80s. Heavy rainfall is possible.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a 70-percent chance of thunderstorms, with the best chances South of US-84.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a 60-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs around 90F.
Saturday
Partly cloudy, with a 30-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the low-90s.
