Hello all and happy Saturday! For the outlook for the rest of the weekend and into the next work week, we will mainly expect temperatures along the coastline to remain around average for this time of year with rain chances scattered throughout the week.
As usual, we will start with a big picture outlook of the current conditions, and then see how these features will move throughout the week and influence the weather locally.
Currently, our region is in between two dominating areas of upper-level ridges, one being off the east Atlantic coastline and another being over Arizona and New Mexico. As we will see later in the discussion, the center of the upper-ridge is expected to move eastward, and come closer to our forecast area, leading to a potential increase in temperatures.
For the day today, given the continuing southerly winds off of the Gulf, this should keep temperatures moderated right around the upper 80s to near 90.
With precipitable water values right around 2″ across much of the region and surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, this puts heat indices along the coastline right around the 100 mark.
Currently, this keeps our region along the coastline out of the heat advisory criteria from the NWS, with heat indices being just around 100. As I began to mention earlier, with the upper-level ridge moving closer to our region and continued southerly flow from the Gulf, certain areas could see temperatures rise just enough to be put back under heat advisories, as the moisture and humidity will be in place to support the elevated heat indices. Although this is more likely to happen away from the coastline and will have to be monitored throughout the week for our area.
For precipitation today, it should mainly be scattered in nature, with the main driver being day-time heating and the moisture inflow off of the Gulf of Mexico.
Moving past the weekend and into the beginning of next week, by Tuesday we can expect the upper-level ridge to be centered just to the north of the coastline, over Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
Now for our region, currently it seems that we will be positioned just far enough to the south where the wind off of the Gulf looks to spare us from temperatures in the upper-90s which is likely what will be experienced in places such as Jackson and Meridian MS. What this means is that temperatures are likely to continue to be in the upper-80s close to 90, with convective thunderstorms still on the table.
Looking at the average surface temperature anomalies sums up the above idea, where you can see near and at the coastline will remain right around average for this time of year (around 90), where as areas closer to the upper-level ridge will be above average.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Wind south at 5-to-10mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear with lows in the mid 70s. Wind south at 5mph.
Sunday
Sunny with a 30-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Wind south at 5-to-10mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the upper 70s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Wind southeast at 5-to-10mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the mid 70s. Wind south at 5mph.
Tuesday
Sunny with a 40-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Wind southeast at 5-to-10mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear with lows in the upper 70s. Wind southeast at 5mph.
Wednesday
Sunny with a 30-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Wind southeast at 5-to-10mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the upper 70s. Wind south at 5mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.
Thursday Night
Clear becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s.
Friday
Partly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.
