Warm in South, cooler and wet in Northwest, weak cold front to advance across central CONUS midweek: CONUS Monday-Thursday Forecast – 11/5/2023

Temperature estimate 2 PM CST Monday according to HRRR model // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

Heading into the week, temperatures across most of the country are much warmer than they were last week with that nasty front. The South and much of the Midwest will experience highs in the 60s to 70s Monday.

Radar reflectivity estimate 6 PM CST Monday according to HRRR model // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather
500 mb height and wind estimate 6 PM CST Tuesday according to NAM model // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The Northwest will see cooler temperatures and precipitation over the next couple days, owing to an approaching trough that should enter the area Monday and Tuesday. Snowfall will be likely in the higher elevations.

The Northeast may see some rain (and possibly snow in the northernmost regions) Monday and Monday night as a fast-moving and potent trough moves eastward across eastern Canada. The heaviest of the precipitation should stay in Canada, though.

Temperature estimate 3 PM CST Wednesday according to NAM model // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather
Temperature estimate 3 PM CST Thursday according to GFS model // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

As the week progresses and the trough continues eastward, a cold front will likely advance across the Plains and Midwest Wednesday and Thursday. Some thunderstorms may be possible ahead of the front on Thursday in parts of the South, but severe potential appears limited at this time, according to the SPC. Unlike the front from last week, this front will not have an extremely sharp temperature swing, so even behind the front, highs should still stay in the 50s to low 60s.



Author of the article:


Patrick Kulynych

I am a recent graduate from the University of Alabama in Huntsville with a Bachelor's Degree in atmospheric science. My focus is on forecasting, especially for severe weather events. It is my dream to one day live out in the Great Plains, where I can not only forecast as a career but also go out and chase storms as a hobby!