Weather Alarmists on social media may be less profitable after NOAA upgrade

It is the time of year again where two-week-from-now hurricane forecasts start to be a weekly occurrence. On Facebook and Twitter, the “Super Weather Action Radar 7000 Alerts Central” accounts usually post things like…

EARLY HEADS UP!!

A hurricane will be making landfall in two weeks!! Get prepared now!!

The only problem is, that it never happens. Ever. Literal fake news. Because forecasting hurricanes more than, roughly, five days out is pretty tough. Beyond 10 days is nearly impossible.

At 14 days? No way.

So why won’t this happen as much anymore? Did Facebook and Twitter finally put a stop to alarmists?

Nope.

Let me upgrade ya…

Instead, NOAA upgraded the GFS computer weather model. Here is what the upgraded GFS computer weather model shows for that exact same point in time:

Here is a quick snippet of their press release:

NOAA’s flagship weather model — the Global Forecast System (GFS) — is undergoing a significant upgrade today to include a new dynamical core called the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3). This upgrade will drive global numerical weather prediction into the future with improved forecasts of severe weather, winter storms, and tropical cyclone intensity and track.

Nitty-Gritty computer stuff

The new upgraded has been available to most forecasters during the last few months, for testing purposes. And the GFS-FV3 has done well to hold the rogue, two-week-out hurricanes from showing up in the model data

“In the past few years, NOAA has made several significant technological leaps into the future – from new satellites in orbit to this latest weather model upgrade,” Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said in the statement. “Through the use of this advanced model, the dedicated scientists, forecasters, and staff at NOAA will remain ever-alert for any threat to American lives and property.”

The new GFS computer weather model uses a common infrastructure between the operational and research communities will help advance the FV3-based GFS beyond changing the core.

“​We are excited about the advancements enabled by the new GFS dynamical core and its prospects for the future,” Louis W. Uccellini, Ph.D., director, NOAA’s National Weather Service said in the press release. “Switching out the dynamical core will have significant impact on our ability to make more accurate 1-2 day forecasts and increase the level of accuracy for our 3-7 day forecasts. However, our job doesn’t end there — we also have to improve the physics as well as the data assimilation system used to ingest data and initialize the model.”

What it means for you

Better forecasts. Plain and simple. Especially for tropical systems. Plus it’ll mean less time scrolling through social media asking yourself, “wait, is there REALLY going to be a hurricane here in two weeks?”

As meteorologists, it’ll take some time for all of us to get a handle on what to expect from the new model data. Sure, it is better, but there are always little crinkles in the data to watch out for that can steer us wrong. With the old system, to borrow a phrase, we knew the /tells. With the upgraded model, it’ll take time to learn.