I think in situations like today, tomorrow and Wednesday it is important to look at the actual temperatures and see how they line up to what the models think will happen an hour or two after they render. Because this can tell you a lot about “can we trust this model guidance to get it close?”
Today, the HRRR model seems to be doing pretty well. It looks like it might be over-doing the cold to the north and under-doing the cold to the south.
That means the delineation between “cold” and “not cold” may not be as sharp as we think.
As an aside, my forecast from Saturday morning for my “regular job” for a few points in Texas was off by 15 degrees this morning because the front pushed about 25 miles farther south than expected. So it is good to know that it has laid up closer to where it should be back home.
So that is the call for today’s weather? That depends on your location. And I want to stress again that today’s (before dinner) weather is going to be fine for most folks south of HWY 84 and east of I-55.
In fact this is such a dynamic forecast for temperatures today that I’ve actually given full control to the computers to get it right over on the app. I can’t possibly keep up with the hourly changes to potential overnight lows, total precip, etc, so I set the computer on “autopilot” through Wednesday. That means that the forecast for your location will be fully-automated. I will still be doing a forecast here, but the specifics of the forecast for your location will be all computer-driven over on the app.
Are you asking, “What app?”
My weather app! It is available on both Android and Apple. It’s free. And it is the best weather app you’re going to find for Mississippi and Louisiana (I’m biased). For you folks in Alabama, I think my app is in a tie with Spinks Megginson’s RedZone app.
Head over to your app store to download it!
Okay, back to the forecast!
We will likely see passing clouds and occasional drizzle at tiems today south of I-20, but overall it won’t be a bad “day” to be out and about. Things get more difficult to manage tonight and overnight and into tomorrow morning.
That is when, for parts of the area, we switch from liquid rain to a mixture of rain, freezing rain and sleet. And eventually we switch over to all freezing rain and sleet in many spots.
One estimate from this morning’s HRRR model shows about 0.07″ to 0.15″ of total ice accumulation across parts of the area.
This isn’t likely enough to cause widespread power outages, widespread travel problems, or widespread regular-life-coming-to-a-halt.
However, it will mean that some folks may lose power due to falling tree branches, some spots will have icy roads (especially bridges and overpasses), and some spots things will slow to a crawl (especially closer to I-20 and points northward).
Then things get mighty chilly. Cold air starts to push into the area through the day on Tuesday and we will be waking up in the teens and 20s on Wednesday morning.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mostly sunny. Highs between 30 and 65, depending on location. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with drizzle and light rain changing over to a Wintry mix, especially north of HWY 98. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with a slight chance of freezing rain in the morning, then sunny in the afternoon. Much cooler with highs between 30 and 45 depending on location. North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Tuesday Night: Clear, colder with lows between 10 and 25 depending on location. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Not as cold with lows in the upper 20s.
Thursday: Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Not as cool with highs around 60. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Not as cool with lows in the lower 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Much colder with lows in the lower 20s.
Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Cold with lows in the mid 20s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.
Thank you Nick. We depend on you