WPC concerned about flash flooding for Mississippi

VALID 191456Z – 191811Z

SUMMARY…ONGOING CONVECTION/CELL MERGERS WITHIN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH 18Z…WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION…MID-MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED CONTINUED CONVECTION PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL…CENTERED JUST EAST OF A BATON ROUGE TO JACKSON LINE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS N MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS…WHICH IS SERVING TO TRANSPORT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED…AND PW VALUES AOA 1.75″…NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE THESE SHOWERS WELL…AND THE LATEST TIME-LAGGED HRRR INDICATES A LIKELY AREA OF 1-2″ RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THE SAME AREA COINCIDENT WITH BEST SWATH OF LIFT/MOISTURE SUPPORT…WITH SOME AREAS OF 2-3″ RAINFALL OVER SE LA AND SOUTHERN MS…WHICH IS CO-LOCATED WITH LOWEST FLASH FLOOD VALUES (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-12 AND SOUTH OF I-20). LOCALIZED HIGHER RAIN RATES IN THESE AREAS COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WHICH NUDGES TOTALS ABOVE THE 1-HR AND 3-HR FFG. THE ONLY REAL LIMITING FACTOR IS A LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS…AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE.



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.