But there is no real reason to worry yet. Or perhaps even at all.
There are a handful of things hat need to happen before that thing becomes ‘a thing’ for anyone to worry about. And the likelihood that it follows along the same path as Ida are very low.
Here is a look at what the Tropical Atlantic looks like from the NHC
But lets look underneath that. Or over it. Or both.
In 72 hours, the 500mb map (looking at about 20,000ft up in the air) looks like this:
There will be a ridge of high pressure near Texas, an area of low pressure in the Northeast, and another ridge out in the open Atlantic. And our little area of interest is floating around near Honduras and Nicaragua.
The orange(ish) arrows show the potential direction that our area in question could go. The dashed lines and the most likely directions if the system has any semblance of organization, the curvy line is where it would go if it continues as just a cluster of storms.
And that is a forecast based on physics, not as much model guidance. Because if the area in question has any organization, it will feel the tug of nearby upper-level airmasses. If it isn’t organized, it is more likely to just drift around.
Let’s go even further into the future… Five days out.
Now we have to rely on model data a bit more, but we are still talking about reacting to the moving ‘puzzle pieces’ in the atmosphere.
The ridge of high pressure over Texas has backed off a bit, but the ridge in the Atlantic has moved closer to our area in question. The reaction is to split the eventual direction of our area in question even more. Either is goes into Mexico (like Grace) or goes toward Florida (like Elsa).
So, at this point, even if this thing is ‘a thing’ it doesn’t appear like model guidance will allow it to be a thing for the northern Gulf Coast.
Can ‘things’ change? Totally.
This isn’t a forecast that is set in stone. But given the available data, it is the most accurate forecast at the moment.
So rest easy. This may be something to watch, but it isn’t something to fear. Nor worry about. At least not at this time, given the data we have access to see.
Anyone telling you otherwise is just trying to tug at your emotions.
