South Mississippi Severe Weather & Snowfall Forecast Explanation

(2/13/15 @ 1:25am) Updated written forecast is available here: Gulf Coast wintry weather breakdown

A lot of people are curious about the chance for severe weather on Monday and Tuesday. But even more people are even more curious about the chance for snow on Wednesday.

While there is a much larger threat for severe weather than snow, here is a look at the chances for both.

As an aside, I know there are a lot of places you can get a weather forecast. But please try not to be fooled by, what I like to call, “Modelologists” out there that simply watch the weather models and spit out the maps every few hours with catchy headlines.

Please find a source that you can trust. And find a source that has a meteorological background.

There are a lot of times that computer models spit out QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) maps that don’t match completely with what the atmosphere is doing. The biggest problem with that is snowfall maps. The QPF map may say 1″ to 3″ of snow while the atmosphere is telling you it can’t support creating snowflakes!

An analogy would be the cars that have the brake assist. Brake assist is great, but you don’t rely on that to stop the car. It is there as a safety net – and a safety net only.



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.