Comparing next Tuesday (2/2/16) to Super Tuesday? Not so fast, partner

Author: || Published: 1/30/2016 at 12:49am

I’ve been approached by a handful of people curious about the forecast next week for the southeast. They ask if I’ve heard that next week looks like the Super Tuesday Outbreak back in 2008. And while, sure, there are some things that look similar, I think it may be a bit premature.

Here are a few lists of the Top 15 Analogs – From CIPS Analogs – based on the 12z GFS from Friday, January 29th.

These are for Day 2.5 (60 hours), Day 3 (72 hours, and Day 4 (96 hours). None of them list February 5th or 6th, 2008 (the days of the Super Tuesday Outbreak)

For more info on how to read CIPS Analogs, click here!

In fact, when you look at some of the very basic atmospheric parameters (850mb wind & 500mb wind) as outlines by the 1/30/16 00z GFS, it doesn’t match up with the Super Tuesday outbreak any better than any other recent events.

Does that mean there won’t be any? Sadly, no. There is a good chance that we see some bad weather on Tuesday. But it is still a bit early to start measuring severity. Because the computer weather models are still wrestling with the most basic severe weather parameters.

Here is a look at the chance in instability from the 28th at 00z to the 30th at 00z (for those of you who are new to the weather world, this is showing the difference between Wednesday night and, tonight, Friday night) from Pivotal Weather

 

Notice the dark greys (low instability of less than 00 J/kg CAPE) and the blues (medium instability of around 1,000 J/kg CAPE ) bounce around a lot across the south. And, also notice, that they are thinning out quite a bit. By the time we get from the 28th at 0z to the 30th at 0z the GFS has pulled back from areas of medium instability to a general lack of any instability.

While we are comparing things, though, Super Tuesday had a wide area of medium instability of more than 1,000 J/kg!

So what does all of this mean? Does that mean there won’t be any instability? Sadly, no. But it is an interesting trend that will need to be monitored. It just means, “not so fast, partner” with regards to trying to compare this setup to the Super Tuesday outbreak in 2008.


Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.