I posted a quick graphic on Facebook the other day that seemed to resonate with a lot of people. It was a basic look at the different strengths of storms South Mississippi endures during the summer.
It is a pretty straight-forward and simple graphic, but I think it leaves some room to elaborate. Plus, I want to point out the things we can know and can’t know about each individual type of storm.
Let’s start at the top…
Regular Gulf Coast storms
These are the regular thunderstorms that develop nearly every afternoon from about June 15th through September 15th. These storms can form from afternoon heating or along an outflow boundary or sea-breeze. They often bring heavy rain, gusty wind and lightning along with them. And, speaking of lightning, some of these storms can have a lot of lightning – more than a strike every minute!
Here is a look at a few picture of just regular storms:
Here is even a look at one from the inside on a skycam
These storms often look scary and ominous. But often the bark is worse than the bite.
Sure, these storms can look like they mean business, however the look of it from a distance can often skew your perception about how bad the weather actually is (but I’ll save that topic for another day).
What know about with these storms
Once these storms are established, these storms can cause localized flash flooding, knock down trees and cause power outages. And again, once these are established, often times we can give you some, but not much, advanced warning that one of these storms is headed your direction.
What we don’t know about these storms
Because of the physics that goes into making these storms can be turbulent and unpredictable, they are difficult to forecast before they form. Plus, when these storms are first forming, they can grow very, very quickly. And sometimes the radar beam can swing around and see it looking one way, but by the time it comes back around to sample the storm again, the storm has changed drastically.
Because of that, you may not always receive a lot of advanced warning for younger storms. That is also why sometimes you can look at radar and it won’t show a storm near you… and yet it is raining and thundering.
We also can’t know if your specific location will receive damage from these storms. With regular summertime storms, damage isn’t as likely as strong storms or severe storms. But it can happen. And it is always better to be safe than sorry. So we always recommend getting to a safe spot in the house when any storm is nearby. Not like it is a tornado, there is no need to be in an interior bathroom. But simply away from windows. And when lightning is nearby, we recommend not using any of the plumbing.
Yes. that is real. Lightning is no joke.
Strong Storms
A strong thunderstorm can be a regular storm that gets established, and instead of dying, keeps growing. This happens frequently in the summer across the Gulf Coast in the Summer. Anecdotally, I would say that every day with storms that form south of I-20 from east Texas to the the Georgia-Alabama border features at least one “strong storm” during the Summer.
These storms can produce very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts greater than 40mph and up to 55mph, and small hail. You can get some pretty significant lightning from strong storms, too. Up to one lightning strike every few seconds. In fact, there have been strong storms where the lightning count has been as high as 800 in five minutes! That is a lot of lightning!
Here is a look at a strong storm from last summer. I pulled off on the side of the road to snap a quick picture of the shelf cloud.
What know about with these storms
These storms can be tracked and you will generally get a decent heads up that they are coming – even if you aren’t watching TV or checking a weather app. You will be able to see these in the distance on the horizon and you will likely hear the thunder. And when you do – head inside! Any time you can hear thunder, from any type of storm, it is time to duck for cover.
These storms can cause localized flash flooding, knock down trees and cause power outages. The hail from these storms isn’t large enough to damage anything, but it will be noisy if you own a metal roof or are in a car at the time.
If you are watching TV, we usually have a pretty good handle on where storms like this are going. So we will be able to give a timeline for where it is headed and when it will get there. However…
What we don’t know about these storms
When they’ll die. During the summer sometimes these storms get moving and established and rain themselves out in as little as 15 to 20 minutes. Other times they can last for up to an hour or two. We just can’t always know. Sometimes we have a pretty good idea, sure. But we can’t always know if a certain storm will make it to your specific location.
We also can’t know if your specific location will receive damage. Often times damage from these storms include trees down or fences getting blown over. It depends on a lot though. Things like soil moisture, wind direction, tree age, conductivity of local objects, and a host of other factors go into whether or not a specific spot sees flash flooding, trees blown over, or things getting struck by lightning.
Severe Storms
Severe storms during the summer are very difficult to predict because a lot of things have to come together in the right amounts and at the right time to get a storm to strengthen that much. Usually it takes a growing storm, an outflow boundary and some period of time to build one.
Severe storms happen a few times per week along the Gulf Coast, and rarely more than two or three days in a row. Severe storms bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts greater than 58mph, hail bigger than quarters, and the potential to produce a tornado.
You can get a lot of rain. You can get a lot of wind. You can get a ton of lightning. You can get a lot of hail. The tornado threat is really, really low in the summer. But we’ve learned in the past few years that it isn’t as impossible as we once thought.
The National Weather Service will only issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning on a storm with wind gusts greater than 58mph OR hail bigger than quarters OR a storm capable of producing a tornado. But keep in mind, that lightning is never an indicator of whether a storm is severe or not.
Here is a look at what the wind from a severe storm can look like:
What we know about these storms
We have a pretty good idea about where these storms are going and the threats they bring with them. But, during the Summer they are far less predictable than during the Fall, Winter and Spring
What we don’t know about these storms
Because these are the strongest types of storms during the summer and they happen in frequently, we struggle with them more than the other types of storms. In general, we can’t know when or if a storm will become severe. Because of physics that goes into creating summertime storms, if is very difficult to decipher which storm will strengthen to produce the strongest wind, the biggest hail or have the ability to produce a tornado.
Unlike in the Spring when a Severe Thunderstorm can produce “severe” conditions for hours and hours as it moves over hundreds of miles, in the Summer, the “severe” conditions may only last 10 to 20 minutes. And the storm may die in as little as 30 minutes after forming.
I’ve charted the peak intensity of summer storms (top) and Spring storms (bottom) below:
You can track along at each dot showing the growth, plateau, and decay of the storms over Time. And because each storm is different, the length of time it take for storms to grow, mature, and decay will be different.
We also can’t know if your specific location will receive damage. However, damage from severe storms is much more likely than the other types of storms that occur during the summer. Because the intensity of the storm is higher, the potential for damage is also higher. It is important to get to cover quickly when a severe storm is near your area.
The wrap up
This is why some days we say “severe weather isn’t expect… but it isn’t impossible” because most days there is no way to know if that is the day a storm will strengthen enough to be severe.
Truly, you should treat all storms equally. When you hear thunder, head inside. Stay inside until 30 minutes after the last rumble. Stay away from windows during the storm. And avoid using anything that is plugged into the wall. We recommend that because lightning doesn’t give you any warning. It is here and gone in a flash – literally.
While trees falling on homes or cars may seem more dangerous, really the chances you get struck by lightning while standing outside during a storm are much, much higher than having a tree fall on you. Because there are only so many trees. And there are nearly infinite strikes of lightning.
